Time to buy? Will the good deals will go away?

The first article, Economist says builders should take lead in housing correction, from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports on yesterdays Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook 2007 held at the Arizona Biltmore. Local housing analyst RL Brown gave a blunt talk on our housing market, saying that to bring the housing market into balance, Phoenix area home builders need to shrink their inventory and home sellers need to realize they won't get top dollar for their homes. "It's time to take some corrective action," RL said. Resales are controlling the market, he said, as many sellers continue to seek top dollar for their homes as they did during the housing boom of late 2004 and all of 2005. As a result, Brown said, fewer houses are selling. That combined with large home builder inventories, has slowed the market. "We need to achieve a more realistic balance between supply and demand," Brown said. Brown had advice for resale sellers looking to sell: "They are probably going to have to realize they aren't going to get what Jim three houses down got." RL did say that the market is still one of the best in the nation and all the fundamentals are still in place, population and job growth, for a bright future.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/09/18/daily47.html?t=printable
The second article, Analyst: Adapt to slowdown, from the Arizona Republic, also reports on RL Brown's presentation yesterday. It states that Brown gave a "come to Jesus" talk to the audience stating that sellers and home builders need to get real. Neither is going to capture the abnormally high real estate prices seen last year. If a more realistic approach isn't taken, the market will continue to slug along. So far this year, resales in the Valley are off 30 percent, and new home sales are off 23 percent. http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0922biz-realestate0922brown.htmlThe third article, Propping up the economy, from the Arizona Republic, also reports on yesterdays presentation. Elliott Pollack, another presenter, said that the Valley is expected to create 80,000 jobs in 2006, and 60,000 in 2007. As many as 130,000 people will move to metropolitan Phoenix this year. On housing, it quotes RL Brown as saying "I thought we would have seen the housing market stabilize by now. Now home builders have a surplus and no lines at their sales offices. Reality set in for them a month ago." On commercial, it quotes Pete Bolton of CB Richard Ellis as saying "We need more industrial space. Until we get it, the Valley will lose more jobs as companies go where there's space." More than 8 million square feet of warehouse space is under construction in metro Phoenix. About 3 million square feet of office space will go up in the Valley this year. On the retail end, Ron Barness of Retail Brokers, Inc. stated that "it wasn't long ago that high-end East Coast retailers weren't interested in Phoenix. The opposite is true now." The Valley retail vacancy rate is 5 percent, lower than it's ever been. Currently, 6.6 million square feet of retail space is under construction in the Valley.http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0922biz-realestate0922intro.htmlThe fourth article, Survey predicts higher home prices, from the Arizona Republic, reports on a Cox survey that was done on viewers T.V. sets allowing viewers to respond to questions using their remote controls. The results were presented at yesterdays Economic Outlook 2007. In the survey, nearly half the respondents said they thought housing prices will increase over the next year, 29 percent said they would stay the same, and 22 percent think they will decline. On the economy, 44 percent said they believe the economy will perform better this year than last year, and 34 percent think it will be worse.http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0922sr-biz0922realestateZ8.html